America decides....

I think most of us breathed a sigh of relief when the news came through that Obama had secured a second term. The challenge for him now is to use that to actually put the changes in place that he promised four years ago. But it wont be easy. Once again the result was too close for comfort - with Obama only just getting the support of a majority of the population (50.4%) despite winning 303 of the electoral college votes. And there are stark divisions between Democrat and Republican voters - with Obama getting majority support from women, black, young educated and hispanic voters. The difference between men and women is over 11% - contrast with the difference in the UK between labour and tory which is usually around 1%.

Not that any of this is any comfort to the Republicans - who now need desperately to find a way of building an election winning coalition in 2016. And they wont be helped by their bonkers wing - the Tea Party tendency shows no signs of moderating their extreme views, and seem to be in total denial about how they are perceived by the majority of the US electorate.

But to return to Obama, who will need to engage with the more moderate republicans to build some sort of consensus to support what he needs to do to address the challenges if the next few years - the first of which is approaching like a speeding train - the fiscal cliff on January 1st.

Still on the US theme, I watched 'Too Big to fail' last night - the story of the demise of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The film, an HBO production, featured William Hurt and Edward Asner amongst others. The film begins with film of George Bush and Ronald Reagan speaking about the need for removing 'burdensome' regulation to free up the financial markets. And then we see the result - poorly regulated banks indulging in high risk, speculative lending, building huge portfolios of property with sub prime mortgages. Lehman brothers, exposed, with its chief executive desperately trying to find investment, and appealing to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (Hurt) to intervene. Ironically, Paulson had previously been employed by Goldman Sachs as CEO and had been instrumental in promoting deregulation.

The film focuses on the efforts of Paulson and Timothy Geithner (President of the Federal Reserve) together with the CEOs of various US banks, to rescue Lehman Brothers - without success and Lehmans file for bankruptcy. Initially Wall Street welcomes the fact that the government didn't intervene - but then AIG (a big insurance company that had covered the sub prime mortgages). The film concludes with the US Government injecting funds into all the banks to provide stability.

While all this was going on , meetings of suits in boardrooms, expense account lunches and CEOs ensuring their stock holdings were protected, all over the country people were losing their homes, jobs and futures. Which just highlights for me the essential moral bankruptcy of capitalism and the need, the requirement for effective regulation.

Regulation still seems to be a dirty word. In every sector - financial, small business, the environment. But REGULATION WORKS. Regulation would (and should) stop banks playing roulette with customers money. And regulation stops industry routinely polluting and harming the environment. And regulation stops employers taking short cuts with health and safety, or employees working hours. I have never bought the idea, promoted by such bodies as the Institute of Directors, or the Taxpayers Alliance, that businesses are over burdened with bureacracy and paperwork.

Non political entry

Really? No comment on the political scene? No devastating attacks or caustic comments on the chaotic condem coalition?.....no.

Cycling, or the joys of riding to work....having bought a shiny new racing bike, it seemed only right (when the weather was suitable!) to take things seriously and get some exercise....also expanding waistline needs some serious attention...It was a bit of a chore the first few days but once I got into the routine -load up saddlebags etc, after a few days it became quite enjoyable. Until I got my first puncture...which was a pain. Mainly because I wasn't prepared for it -no spare tube, no tools, so i had to walk home (in full cycle gear!)...and then learn how to repair a puncture. Which took several patches (bad sticking) and several tubes (kept pinching them !)...but got there in the end.

So now the normal way to work is cycle. And I get to see so much more than in a car. Especially dog walkers (and the number who don't bother to pick up their dogs mess...)...and other cyclists (and the number who ride through red lights, on pavements etc).

So it was going well...up until last Monday when a girl stepped out right in front of me near Lendal bridge.....too late to stop, I ran straight into her...she went flying, I went flying...ouch! Luckily I wasn't going as fast as I might have been, so apart from a few bruises we were both ok.

and politics?....I still detest Camerclegg....and this bloody coalition will be worse for the country than that bloody woman was....but I remain hopeful that the abominable condems will explode in mutual loathing...especially if the reaction of the BBC Question Time audiences is mirrored in the rest of the country...they actually booed Maude last week.

and so the cuts begin...the condem coalition seems determined to drive the country into a recession, starting with £2 billion worth of cuts to projects which either create (e.g. the loan to sheffield forgemasters) or train (future jobs fund). And this will doubtless be followed by a harsh, unthinking budget next week. While I would concede that there is a need to tackle the budget deficit, this could and should be done on a gradual, planned basis. The scorched earth policy being pursued by the tories, with lapdog liberals in tow is too much, too soon, and many people will suffer unnecessarily as a result.

And of course the condems have adopted the usual tactic of incoming governments of blaming it all on their predecessors....apparently finding 'black holes' in government finances, unallocated spending etc etc....the funniest sight is to see libdems squirming and wriggling trying to explain away 180 degree turns in their views since they were shafted by the tories....and Danny 'beaker from the muppets' Alexander trying to look authoritative and like he knows what he is talking about standing at the despatch box...would be funny it it wasn't so serious....

And away from the finances, tories are starting to put down some markers for the future. The new minister at DEFRA, Caroline 'please pay for my nanny' Spelman has a stated aim of slackening controls on farming....so that should eliminate any improvements in river quality for the foreseeable future.... and will probably lead to deterioration.

The labour leadership contest bores on. I simply cant get too worked up about it. Diane Abbott has at least brought some diversity to the shortlist -but she wont win it. Andy Burnham has got some interesting views and a working class (if that means anything) background. Ed Balls has a marginal sea, so probably wont get it. So it will come down to one of the Milibands...probably David although it will be interesting to see how much union support Ed can gather....as long as someone is on place for the autumn and a snap election if the coalition falls apart....

BP has agreed to pay billions in compensation for the oil spill. Under pressure from Obama, apparently BP (note to Obama - its NOT 'British Petroleum', nor has been for years!) have agreed to pay this and not pay any dividends this year. The hypocrisy of the americans is breathtaking...the US is the biggest polluter in the world. The operations of American oil companies in particular have caused severe pollution throughout the world. And the US company Union Carbide has never been fully called to account over the Bhopal disaster -over 20 years ago. The real problem is the insatiable demand for oil from the developed world (especially the US) which drives oil exploration and extraction from places where either the technology does not exist to operate safely (the Gulf) or in an environmentally safe way (tar sands).

Condem casualty....

So, after only three weeks, the first coalition resignation....that WAS quick!

Whilst the suggested reason for the resignation of David Laws would be no cause for celebration (although one can understand his fear of being 'outed' whilst sitting in the same cabinet as apparent homophobes such as Teresa May), the real reason is, of course, more basic. HE WAS CAUGHT OUT FIDDLING HIS EXPENSES.

So this is the 'new politics' Dave? We're all going to do it better in future Nick? Really?

What is difficult to understand is how the coalition didn't see this coming. Laws must have known the truth would come out sooner or later. Tweedledum and Tweedledummer must have asked the questions in the appointment process? Or did they just take laws word that he was clean?

So the coalition loses someone who at least had some qualifications and relevant experience for his cabinet post (unlike Gideon). And also a handy scapegoat from the minor partners to take the flak when the going gets tough...as it will.

And even Afghanistan is causing tears before bedtime for the coalition. After the Defence Secretary's gaffe (apparently he is known as 13th Century Fox now) and differences between minsters on any timetable for withdrawal, Cameron has called a summit meeting to sort the policy out.

Back on the home front, opposition is growing to the coalition education proposals. Boy wonder Gove's proposals to 'release' the schools from local authority control and make every school an academy, whilst superficially attractive, conceal a myriad of potential problems. Inevitably, the better schools will grow and thrive (and cream off the more able), leaving sink schools to cater for the remaining pupils on reducing funding. Pupils with statements of special needs can be denied admission to academies unless by application to, yes, Michael Gove.

And the most pernicious aspect of the proposals, the creation of 'free schools'. groups of pushy middle class parents, unhappy with allocated (and probably adequate schools) will be able to set up their own hobby schools and run them.....And where will the funding for these providers of academic excellence come from -especially at a time of financial austerity? Correct -by reducing funding for the remaining community schools, thus further reducing their viability.

So to return to the former Chief Secretary to the Treasury....my concern is that the resignations are starting too early. At this rate the coalition will have fallen apart by the Autumn, allowing the tories to cut and run to the country and possibly win an outright majority. I would prefer at least a year.....

and in later news.....the new Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander (as much treasury experience as Gideon) turns out to have avoided paying capital gains tax when he sold his London flat...nothing illegal, but to quote Nick 'I agree with Dave' Clegg...."There are MPs who flipped one property to the next, buying property, paid by you, the taxpayer, and then they would do the properties up, paid for by you, and pocket the difference in personal profit.’’

Are the condem cuts really needed now?

So the two oxbridge educated millionaires stood before the assembled press today (and treasury staff) and set out their plans for over £6billion worth of cuts. Against a background of an improved deficit (for which the Condems will probably soon claim credit?), these cuts are unnecessary and cruel. Cruel to those staff in the various quangos that will lose their jobs by the end of the year (of which more later) and cruel to those families for whom the child trust funds would have made that little difference in later life. And are they needed? Over £6billion worth of cuts runs the risk of turning a fragile recovery into a double dip recession. We've been here before, of course, in the 80's and then the 90's, when an over zealous tory government created millions of unemployed, in fact used unemployment as a weapon against the working people in this country. And they are doing the same again. And where are the libdems, who were vociferous in their opposition to the planned £6 billion...very quiet, compliant and overjoyed at being in Government. And apparently careless of the votes of millions that helped put them there.....

And what do the cuts consist of? Reduced spending on IT projects (which?), reduced use of private sector consultants (with knock on effects?). Reduced budgets in most Government departments, including Defra - so we will have to wait and see how that translates into reduced funding for the Agency. And especially, personally, fisheries....

Some of the quangos that will be terminated by Gideons Law may not be much missed. The Potato Council and the Milk Development Council should possibly be better organised and funded by the industry they promote. But what of the National College of School Leadership - provider of training courses including the NPQH, a pre-requisite for aspiring Head Teachers - is this really doing such a bad job? How will Governing bodies assess candidates for headship in the future? The School Food Trust - hasn't it done good work in improving children's diets - but to the dogmatic tories it is 'part of the nanny state'. What happened to society Dave? Not your bonkers 'big society' but the society where we all work together to make a better world - oh, sorry, I forgot, we have a tory government again, the strong survive and the weak go to the wall....just like Thatcher 's time......

Coalition dreams and tory schemes....

Clegg made much yesterday of his package of constitutional change, claiming it will be the biggest change for decades. Really? So the last thirteen years, including devolution for Scotland and Wales, new voting systems for the European parliament and so on didn't happen? Or is it just dwarfed by the plans of the new political colossus (slept with up to 30 women of course)....Clegg really needs to get a grip and realise he's not much closer to power than diddy David Steel was a generation ago when he told the libdems to "go back to their constituencies and prepare for government"....it aint what you promise in your coalition agreement Nick, its what you deliver....and you may not be around long enough to do that.

Meanwhile the real PM is concocting plans to ensure his party stays in power for a generation or two. Under the guise of reducing the number of MP's (which will save us money so it MUST be a good thing) he plans to undertake radical redrawing of constituency boundaries, the effect of which will be to reduce the number of urban, labour held seats by up to 20. The libdems, of course,want PR, as pure as possible. But the best they can hope for is AV, and the tories will be allowed to campaign against that so it probably wont go anywhere.

The coalition (or lets be honest) the slightly diluted tory government, has finally published its plans for the next 5 years. Lots of words but little detail -which is, as ever with tories, where the devil is....interesting at the launch of the document, when a clearly uncomfortable Vince Cable (who wouldn't be uncomfortable sharing a platform with Osborn?) revealed that they were 'making it up as they go along'...really? Cable should be reassured about the competence of his fellow Minsters -after all Osborne bring considerable relevant experience to the post of Chancellor having worked as a data inputter in the NHS and a supermarket shelf stacker....

More details are emerging as to why the potential Lab Libdem coalition never got off the ground. Despite the propaganda put around by the libdems, it seems clear now (see here http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2010/05/lib-dems-labour-clegg-tories ) that it was. in fact, the libdems (especially Chris Huhne and Danny Alexander) were hostile to the idea of coalition with labour. Add to this the warm relationship between Cameron and Clegg, and the deal was done. The only problem for Clegg was selling it to the rank and file - hence the spin about the abortive deal with labour.

Some good news at last when Unite won its appeal in the High Court against BA. Only by 2-1 of course, the right wing judiciary wouldn't make it too easy. And why did BA win the injunction? Because details of a HANDFUL of spoilt ballot papers weren't publicised....how tenuous, how biased, if not downright crooked! Who was the judge - a relative of Willie Walsh? or just programmed to side with management. Billy Bragg got it right years ago - "this isn't a court of justice, this is a court of law" (Rotting on Remand). The only obstacle to settling the strike is the poisonous Willie Walsh - and hopefully the BA board will realise this and sack him. Soon.

Turmoil continues on the world financial markets, following Germany's attempt to restrict some of the dodgy dealing carried out by traders. Why do we tolerate these parasites, who bet against and for european currencies? These people produce nothing of value, just exist to make profit for themselves - and in doing so cause misery for millions. And this is how capitalism works?

Final thought -I enjoy question time on BBC more since the election- nice to see both the tories AND the libdems getting hammered for anything and everything that goes wrong.....Theresa 'shoes' May and Ming the Merciless getting it this week.....

Dave says thanks to Rupert...

Day 8 of the Cameroonites or Cleggons....apparently Rupert Murdoch paid a visit to Downing street yesterday...doubtless to receive the grateful thanks of Cameron for all the assistance of the Murdoch empire (it was Sky what won it...well done Boulton....you disgrace to balanced and fair reporting). Doubtless Dave and Murdoch discussed payback and how Dave could help get rid of obstacles to Rupert such as Ofcom (very inconvenient inquiry into monopoly powers cobber....can you do something?)....



Cameron seems determined to nip any possible objections in the bud by annexing the tory 1922 committee -thus ensuring that a possible source of dissent is stifled at birth. Cameron is doing this by promoting a rule change so that all tory mps (rather than just backbenchers) can vote. Normally this wouldn't go anywhere, but with the large influx of new, ambitious tory mps, it probably will.


Meanwhile, the other half of the dynamic duo (the monkey rather than the organ grinder) put forward his vision for a freer society. Which admittedly has some good points, such as scrapping id cards. I'm not so sure about the plans to limit the DNA database - there have been a number of offenders who have been convicted as a result of samples being maintained on this -I think the benefits outweigh the civil liberties risks.


The odd couple are still persisting with their plans to set the percentage of mps for dissolution to 55% despite growing opposition. It will be interesting to see if they can muster the 51% of votes needed to pass the new law.....


Meanwhile, in the alternate reality that is labour in opposition, the list of candidates for labour leader grows. Ed Balls has now joined the list, along with the token outsider, John McDonnell. Balls seems to be positioning himself to the left of the Milibands - he has good union connections and has spent the last 2 years on the rubber chicken circuit delivering after dinner speeches to local labour parties. All the candidates talk of reconnecting to the voter - not an unusual sentiment, I seem to recall the same from labour in the 80's and the tories in the 90's/00's. Labour certainly has a lot of reconnecting to do to overcome the handicaps of association with Iraq, the credit crunch and all the other ills defined by the media. The media seem to be building a campaign against Balls - which may be telling in itself - perhaps they fear he may make a decent fist of it? The main attraction of the Miliband brothers seems to be their visual appeal - either could appear attractive alongside Cleggamon. But is that really how the labour party wants to pick its leader?