Monday 12 November 2012

America decides....

I think most of us breathed a sigh of relief when the news came through that Obama had secured a second term. The challenge for him now is to use that to actually put the changes in place that he promised four years ago. But it wont be easy. Once again the result was too close for comfort - with Obama only just getting the support of a majority of the population (50.4%) despite winning 303 of the electoral college votes. And there are stark divisions between Democrat and Republican voters - with Obama getting majority support from women, black, young educated and hispanic voters. The difference between men and women is over 11% - contrast with the difference in the UK between labour and tory which is usually around 1%.

Not that any of this is any comfort to the Republicans - who now need desperately to find a way of building an election winning coalition in 2016. And they wont be helped by their bonkers wing - the Tea Party tendency shows no signs of moderating their extreme views, and seem to be in total denial about how they are perceived by the majority of the US electorate.

But to return to Obama, who will need to engage with the more moderate republicans to build some sort of consensus to support what he needs to do to address the challenges if the next few years - the first of which is approaching like a speeding train - the fiscal cliff on January 1st.

Still on the US theme, I watched 'Too Big to fail' last night - the story of the demise of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The film, an HBO production, featured William Hurt and Edward Asner amongst others. The film begins with film of George Bush and Ronald Reagan speaking about the need for removing 'burdensome' regulation to free up the financial markets. And then we see the result - poorly regulated banks indulging in high risk, speculative lending, building huge portfolios of property with sub prime mortgages. Lehman brothers, exposed, with its chief executive desperately trying to find investment, and appealing to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (Hurt) to intervene. Ironically, Paulson had previously been employed by Goldman Sachs as CEO and had been instrumental in promoting deregulation.

The film focuses on the efforts of Paulson and Timothy Geithner (President of the Federal Reserve) together with the CEOs of various US banks, to rescue Lehman Brothers - without success and Lehmans file for bankruptcy. Initially Wall Street welcomes the fact that the government didn't intervene - but then AIG (a big insurance company that had covered the sub prime mortgages). The film concludes with the US Government injecting funds into all the banks to provide stability.

While all this was going on , meetings of suits in boardrooms, expense account lunches and CEOs ensuring their stock holdings were protected, all over the country people were losing their homes, jobs and futures. Which just highlights for me the essential moral bankruptcy of capitalism and the need, the requirement for effective regulation.

Regulation still seems to be a dirty word. In every sector - financial, small business, the environment. But REGULATION WORKS. Regulation would (and should) stop banks playing roulette with customers money. And regulation stops industry routinely polluting and harming the environment. And regulation stops employers taking short cuts with health and safety, or employees working hours. I have never bought the idea, promoted by such bodies as the Institute of Directors, or the Taxpayers Alliance, that businesses are over burdened with bureacracy and paperwork.